Ansarollah Website. Report | Yahya Al-Shami

In the aftermath of the Gaza war, which exposed the fragility of the Israeli entity and its failure to achieve a "military victory," the conscription crisis has emerged as a festering wound. This crisis not only threatens the military establishment but also portends the tearing apart of the entity's social fabric from within, weakening its army's readiness to face future challenges. Between the protests of Haredim (ultra-Orthodox) who refuse military service, the anger of soldiers returning from the inferno of battle, and the infighting among the political elite who benefit from the divisions, the entity is transforming into what has been termed "two states for two peoples," as described by Zionist analysts. In this scenario, societal groups share the existential burden of the enemy, while its army is mired in structural crises that may deprive its leadership of the necessary manpower to implement its expansionist plans.

The Roots of the Crisis: Haredi Exemption and the “Dust Evasion Law”

The conscription crisis dates back to 1948, when the authorities of the occupying entity granted a temporary exemption from military service to students of religious seminaries (yeshivas) under the pretext of “protecting Jewish identity.” However, this exemption became a structural tool for building a closed Haredi class that refuses to integrate into secular society and justifies its isolation by “dedicating their life to Torah study.” Today, the entity’s population is approximately 13 million, of whom Haredim constitute 13%. Most of them live on government support while evading national responsibilities.

In October 2023, following the military defeat inflicted by Al-Aqsa Flood Operation in Gaza, which cost the enemy 916 dead and 6,300 wounded out of 500,000 soldiers, a debate erupted regarding the "unfair burden" placed on non-Haredi soldiers. Military analyst Or Heller (Channel 13) explained: "The war revealed an existential gap: while secular and moderate religious Jews pay the price in blood, the Haredim remain in their homes, watching the carnage." This statement encapsulates a scene described by political analyst Yair Cherki (Channel 12) as "more painful than any battlefront," where the disagreements have transformed into a struggle over the very identity of the state.

From Haredi Protests to a Collapse of Trust in the Army

In October 2025, Jerusalem witnessed the "Million-Man March," where 200,000 Haredim gathered to protest a draft law that would require them to serve in the military, describing it as an "attack on Torah identity." The protests, organized by prominent rabbis, escalated into the blocking of major roads and the burning of military buses, while dozens of draft dodgers were arrested. Attorney Aharon Aksul, former Tel Aviv police chief, commented: "The draft law has become a seasonal joke… everyone against everyone else, so there's no law and no conscription."

Meanwhile, reservists express their anger at what they call "parasites" who benefit from the army's security without contributing to its creation. A 35-year-old reservist told The Jerusalem Post: "We lost three of our comrades in Gaza, and 80% of my company are religious soldiers who serve and sacrifice, while the Haredim refuse even to talk about national service!" This resentment widens the rift between the two enemy societies: the secular one - which is considered moderate - on the one hand, and the closed-off Haredi one on the other.

Returnees: Fighting Spirit Undermines Psychological Trauma

Beyond political disagreements, Western reports reveal a deep psychological crisis among soldiers returning from Gaza. The French newspaper Le Figaro describes a "silent hell" experienced by soldiers like Yisrael Hayat, who, according to the paper, has become unfit to live after witnessing his friends "explode before his eyes." Hayat cries out to Knesset members: "I try to kill myself every day… Get me treatment!" Other soldiers assert that Netanyahu "prolonged the war to remain in power." Yoav, 25, who suffers from post-traumatic stress disorder, says: "The world sees us as extremists, but they are the politicians who have demonized us."

According to enemy experts, these traumas weaken morale and increase suicide and desertion rates, thus escalating the need to recruit thousands of new soldiers annually—a need the Israeli leadership cannot meet due to resistance from the Haredim.

Netanyahu and the “Parasite Alliance”

The crisis has never been merely social or military, though its social aspect is the most visible. It is fundamentally political. The enemy's criminal prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu—who relies on an alliance with the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism—refuses to enact a strict conscription law for fear of his government's collapse. Attorney Baruch Kara (Channel 13) explains: “The government is forming new committees to perpetuate the conflict, as if dissonance has become the official tune of the state.”

Meanwhile, opposition parties are trying to exploit the crisis to oust Netanyahu, while the ultra-Orthodox insist that “Torah study is the shield of the state,” even though 30% of them do not actually study, but rather exploit exemptions to live on welfare. Reserve Major David Fortal warns: "The focus on the Haredim has anti-Semitic motives," but other analysts—such as Reuven Sharon—refute this claim, saying: "The simple fact is that they are in prison because they deserted from the army, not because of foreign conspiracies."

The future scenarios are bleak for the enemy:

The first reality is the collapse of mobilization capacity. With the increasing proportion of Haredim (expected to reach 20% of the settler population by 2030), the enemy army will face a severe shortage of recruits, especially given the rising costs of modern warfare, which consumes tens of thousands of soldiers at once, as happened in Gaza.

Furthermore, the disintegration of the fabric of Israeli society poses a grave danger. Yair Cherki describes the situation as one of "no unified discourse." The division between religious and secular factions fuels hate speech and erodes trust in security institutions.

In addition, the enemy is weakened on future fronts. Without a fundamental solution, it may be unable to open multiple fronts against the Palestinian resistance or Hezbollah, especially if its manpower is diverted to a "cold civil war," as military expert Jacob Grant puts it.

The Entity at a Crossroads

The conscription crisis is not a temporary technical dispute, as is the case with most similar dilemmas in other entities. For the enemy entity, and this time in particular, it is an existential test for the enemy's ongoing expansionist project. Between Haredim who refuse "assimilation into secular society," a soldier returning from Gaza who sees himself as "a walking corpse," and a political leadership that prefers clinging to power to saving the entity, the question becomes: Can an entity suffering from such divisions remain cohesive in the face of escalating resistance?

The answer—according to an analysis of the current balance of power—is no. The human cost of future wars will be exorbitant, and the enemy—whose lack of a clear strategy was demonstrated in the Gaza war—will find itself trapped in internal conflicts that weaken its army and fuel popular discontent. Perhaps this crisis—more than any weapon—is the spark capable of breaking the enemy's chains of power, provided that the battle is managed with strategic awareness that exploits these weaknesses and invests in them within the context of an existential struggle that mobilizes all resources, exploits all vulnerabilities, and harnesses all energies.

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