Rico Luman, senior transport economist at the Dutch banking group ING, said that the gradual return to the Red Sea is the most significant development the shipping sector will face next year. He noted that although this return will bring benefits to the global supply chain, it will also be accompanied by disruptions.

In an article published on Monday, Luman wrote that “the gradual return to the Red Sea route after long detours around the Cape of Good Hope is the most anticipated development in the global shipping market next year.” 

He pointed out that it is only a matter of time, adding, “If one major company decides that the risk is worth taking, other companies will certainly follow.”

He explained that “resuming maritime transport through the Red Sea saves more than 3,000 nautical miles and about 10 days of sailing on the Asia–Europe route. Over time, this will significantly free up vessel capacity, as the alternative route currently consumes around 6% of the global fleet’s capacity, in addition to recurrent delays. 

For this reason, the return will cause disruptions—just as the initial large-scale route diversion did.”

He added that “following the ceasefire agreement in Gaza in October, major container lines such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd no longer rule out returning to the Red Sea, stating that they will do so once conditions allow.”

Luman said that “ultimately, customers’ supply-chain efficiency will benefit from reopening the passage, and fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions—which had surged due to the additional mileage—will be reduced.”

However, he clarified that “the return to the previous normal will be accompanied by new disruptions. Early vessel arrivals may cause port congestion, which could lead to backlogs at container terminals and delays for vessels and empty containers across supply chains. Shipping rates may rise, especially if this shift coincides with the Chinese New Year. 

But once sailing schedules stabilize, prices are expected to decline notably, as more capacity is released and newly built vessels from the large order book continue to enter service throughout 2026.”

He added: “Although a reasonable return to the Red Sea could occur within the next six months, container shipping companies are keen to avoid rushing the process. 

This was evident in Maersk’s statement following an initial announcement by the Suez Canal Authority,” referring to Egypt’s announcement that Maersk vessels would resume transit starting early December—a claim Maersk declined to confirm.

Luman explained that one of the reasons companies are not rushing is the “high insurance premiums,” noting that these premiums “are likely to decrease significantly, or that prior approval for voyages may be required before transit.”