Ansarollah Website Official Report
Published: 24 Ramadan 1447 AH

The Islamic Republic of Iran has demonstrated—through effective deterrence strategies—that it has become a regional and international power that cannot be underestimated. According to political and economic analyses surrounding the current conflict, any attempt to overthrow its system or impose external will by force is likely to provoke strong and wide-ranging reactions. The scope of Iran’s response, which has influenced global markets, supply chains, and the strategic calculations of major powers, underscores its capacity to impose significant costs on any effort perceived as threatening its security or political system.

As the second week of the American–Israeli military campaign against Iran draws to a close, the scale of the risk involved in the confrontation is becoming increasingly clear to Western countries in general, and to the United States and the Zionist entity in particular. Observers say the escalation has effectively drawn the wider international system into a confrontation whose consequences were not fully anticipated.

What was initially expected by Washington and the Israeli side to be a swift and decisive operation, has evolved into a strategic crisis with far-reaching implications. Rather than remaining confined to the region, the confrontation has reverberated across global energy markets, maritime shipping routes, supply chains, financial exchanges, tourism sectors, and even the political calculations of major global powers.

The past fourteen days have therefore redefined the concept of deterrence in the region. The escalation has challenged what Trump and his administration once described as “peace through strength,” revealing instead the resilience and cohesion of Iran’s internal political structure. The confrontation has also enabled Iran to reposition itself as a regional and global actor that cannot easily be ignored.

While Washington and the Zionist entity anticipated limited consequences from a rapid military campaign, the crisis has instead produced a series of economic and political shocks that have spread far beyond the region. These developments have reinforced the perception that any large-scale confrontation with Iran carries unpredictable consequences.

Strait of Hormuz: Global Energy Lifeline Under Pressure

Global markets are watching developments in the "Middle East" with growing concern. Military tensions have led to unprecedented disruption in maritime navigation, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.

The slowdown in oil tanker movement—linked to the ongoing conflict—has raised fears of supply shortages and price surges. Such developments have direct implications for inflation and everyday living costs worldwide.

Reports indicate that security risks in the strategic passage have increased significantly, leading some container ships and oil tankers to halt operations or remain stationed in nearby waters. As a result, large numbers of vessels have accumulated around the area, effectively transforming surrounding waters into floating storage facilities for oil produced in the region.

The maritime routes across the Gulf region, covering roughly a quarter of a million square kilometers, normally host dense traffic of oil tankers and commercial vessels. However, rising security concerns have made the Strait of Hormuz nearly inaccessible to certain ships. Oil-producing states have therefore begun exploring alternative pipeline routes to transport crude.

These alternatives—including the Saudi East–West pipeline and the UAE’s Habshan–Fujairah pipeline—have limited capacity, collectively transporting about 2.6 million barrels per day. In contrast, nearly 20 million barrels of oil normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily. This disparity highlights the sensitivity of global markets to any disruption in the region and underscores the strategic importance of Iran’s geographic position near the passage.

Global Oil Shock: The Cost of Escalation

The consequences of the conflict quickly appeared in global energy markets. Oil prices surged sharply, with Brent crude once again approaching the $100-per-barrel threshold and rising by approximately 4.5 percent since the escalation began.

Markets have been closely monitoring developments in the region because any targeting of energy infrastructure or disruption to oil ports could rapidly reduce supplies and trigger dramatic price increases.

In an effort to stabilize markets, the International Energy Agency announced the largest coordinated release of strategic oil reserves in its history. The United States alone authorized the release of 192 million barrels from its reserves, while major economies including Japan, South Korea, Britain, and Germany introduced similar measures.

Despite the scale of these releases, analysts estimate that the combined reserves would cover less than four days of global consumption. As a result, experts view the move primarily as a short-term attempt to calm markets rather than a solution to the structural supply disruptions caused by the conflict.

The unprecedented scale of the reserve drawdown—far exceeding the previous record set in 2022—reflects fears that instability in the Gulf , triggered by Iran's legitimate response to attacks on US interests and bases, could lead to a prolonged wave of price increases and broader repercussions for transportation, inflation, and global economic growth.

Before the conflict began, global oil demand was already relatively strong. This has made markets particularly sensitive to sudden supply disruptions, especially when they originate in the Gulf region. As long as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained and global demand remains high, a point emphasized by the new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Mojtaba Khamenei, in his first statement since assuming office a few days ago—, the released reserves may only provide temporary relief while global economies absorb significant losses. 

Impact on Technology and Food Industries

The consequences of the crisis extend beyond the energy sector. Key global industries, including semiconductor manufacturing, are also vulnerable to disruptions.

The production of electronic chips relies on critical materials, including helium gas, which is difficult to replace. Rising energy costs also increase the operational expenses of data centers and manufacturing facilities, placing additional pressure on the global technology sector. Countries such as South Korea—responsible for producing more than 60 percent of the world’s semiconductor chips—are particularly exposed to such disruptions.

The crisis also has direct implications for everyday living costs. Higher energy prices raise the cost of producing essential goods such as bread, which depends on energy-intensive agricultural and manufacturing processes. Estimates suggest that every 10 percent increase in oil prices could lead to approximately a 3.2 percent rise in bread prices.

This trend raises concerns about a potential global food crisis, especially since the disruptions are not limited to oil. Strategic commodities such as urea and phosphate fertilizers—critical for agricultural production—could also be affected.

Energy-importing countries are expected to face the greatest impact, as rising fuel costs translate into higher inflation and reduced purchasing power. Economists estimate that each $10 increase in oil prices could raise global inflation by about 1 percent.

Reports of Miscalculation

A report published by The New York Times indicated that Trump had expected the campaign against Iran to be a swift operation with limited consequences. Instead, the confrontation has evolved into a shock that has shaken global security and economic systems more deeply than several recent regional conflicts.

According to the report, the escalation is reshaping travel patterns, energy consumption, living costs, international trade routes, and strategic partnerships. It also suggested that the expanding conflict could influence U.S. midterm elections, alter calculations related to the war in Ukraine, and compel China to reassess aspects of its economic strategy.

The newspaper also warned that if the confrontation intensifies and Iran expands its retaliatory actions—including the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz—the result could be a severe oil shock capable of triggering a global economic slowdown.

Political and Geopolitical Repercussions

Within the United States, the conflict is increasingly viewed as a political burden for Trump, particularly given the limited public support for the war. Rising energy prices could become a key issue for voters ahead of midterm elections.

The conflict could also influence global sporting events. The 2026 FIFA World Cup—an event Trump once hoped would highlight his presidency—has been affected by geopolitical tensions after Iran announced it would not participate, signaling opposition to the ongoing conflict.

The ongoing military campaign carried out by the United States and Israel against Iran is reshaping global dynamics in several key areas, including travel patterns, energy dependence, living costs, international trade routes, and strategic partnerships between nations

. According to the newspaper’s report, the scope of the war has expanded, and its retaliatory effects have reached countries that are usually distant from regional conflicts. The confrontation could also cast a shadow over the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, influence calculations surrounding the war in Ukraine, and compel China to reconsider and significantly adjust its economic strategy. This acknowledgment by a prominent American newspaper suggests that Iran’s response has surprised the aggressors and exposed their miscalculation regarding Iran’s strength and the effectiveness of its strategic options.

In Europe, fears of a potential collapse of the Iranian economy—which has been averted thanks to Iran's resilience—have fueled concerns about new waves of migrants crossing the Iranian-Turkish border, reminiscent of the migration crisis that gripped the continent a decade ago. This scenario, long feared by Europeans, underscores that any destabilization in Iran would have far-reaching humanitarian and geopolitical consequences for Europe, making US-Israeli aggression a direct threat to European security.

Meanwhile, Russia could benefit economically from higher oil prices, as increased revenues may help fund its military operations in Ukraine. European policymakers also worry that U.S. and allied use of missile defense systems in the "Middle East" could reduce the availability of such systems for Ukraine’s defense against Russia.

The report also did not rule out the possibility that the consequences of the confrontation could worsen if the war intensifies, particularly if Iran escalates its counterattacks and moves to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital oil transit routes. Such a development could trigger a severe oil shock, raising the specter of a global economic slowdown accompanied by slowing growth and sharply rising prices. Up to this point, the conflict has already had a direct and tangible impact on the Middle East. According to a U.S.-based war monitoring organization, Iran has carried out more attacks against Gulf Arab states than against Israel, targeting luxury hotels and causing damage to desalination plants across the region.

For most countries around the world, one of the earliest and most visible consequences of the war has been the surge in gasoline prices. When oil tankers halted their passage through the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices surged to more than $100 per barrel, prompting economists to warn of the possibility of an economic recession if the oil shock continues for several weeks.

The Reach of Iran’s Response

Fourteen days into the confrontation, it has become clear that Washington and Tel Aviv's adventure was "reckless, foolish, and unplanned," a sentiment echoed by all Western elites, from the United States to the European Union, which is now paying the price for its complicity, with the exception of Spain's independent stance.

Thus, the Islamic Republic of Iran has proven—through its effective deterrent options—that it is a regional and international power that cannot be underestimated, and that any attempt to impose its will by force will be met with strong and widespread responses. The profound impact of the Iranian response—which has affected global markets, supply chains, and even the political calculations of major powers—confirms that the region and the entire world are paying the price for this irresponsible adventure.

This crisis has exposed the fragility of the global order in the face of the strength of the Iranian response, and demonstrated that peace and stability in the region and the world can only be achieved through respect for the sovereignty of states and an end to aggression and foreign interference.