The British maritime analytics firm Vortexa has confirmed that four out of every five tankers crossing the Bab al-Mandab Strait have been using the destination field in the Automatic Identification System (AIS) to transmit messages aimed at avoiding being targeted since the blockade was announced on July 20, in an indication of changing vessel behavior passing through the maritime corridor.
The company revealed that 175 tankers crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait during the thirteen days following the blockade announcement, and that 141 tankers (81%) used the destination field in the AIS to include messages that go beyond merely identifying the intended port.
It affirms that 55 transits included direct messages to Yemen regarding the nationality of the crew and owner, the nature of the cargo, or assertions that the vessel carries no Saudi cargoes or has no ties to the enemy entity, the United States, or the United Kingdom, considering that these messages were directed to the parties monitoring vessel traffic from the Yemeni coast.
The British company points out that the ships' messages were divided into three main patterns: declaring the presence of armed security teams, highlighting Chinese or Russian identity of the crew or owner, or publishing disclaimers confirming that the ship is not carrying Saudi cargoes.
It draws attention to the fact that comparing these messages with cargo origin data showed that most ships declaring they were not carrying Saudi cargoes were not actually transporting Saudi oil in the first place, but rather were carrying cargoes from other countries, which reflects the use of these messages as a precautionary measure to avoid being targeted.
It confirms that ships actually carrying Saudi crude oil followed a different behavior; they mostly refrained from using messages related to the cargo and resorted to turning off AIS transponders or highlighting Chinese ownership, while avoiding any reference to the Saudi origin of the cargo.
It notes that ships linked to Russian cargoes did not display the same behavior, as they continued to cross openly, with several explicitly highlighting their connection to Russia, considering that this reflects a belief that the Russian connection provides a degree of protection in the current threat environment.
Vortexa summarizes that the destination field in the AIS system has effectively turned into a means through which ships broadcast messages aimed at avoiding being targeted, and that these messages reflect the perceptions of shipping companies and vessel crews regarding the nature of threats in the Red Sea more than they reflect verifiable facts, emphasizing that cargo origin data remains the most important reference for understanding actual trade movement through Bab al-Mandab.
