A decades-old regional system built around US military supremacy, support for "Israel", and the containment of Iran has reached a breaking point following Washington and Tel Aviv's war on Tehran, political scientist Marc Lynch argued in Foreign Affairs.
In an extensive analysis titled "The End of the American Middle East", Lynch said the war has exposed fundamental weaknesses in the security architecture Washington constructed after the 1991 Gulf War, particularly its ability to protect allies, impose military outcomes, and guarantee access to strategic waterways.
"The American Middle East is finished," Lynch wrote, arguing that the regional order prevailing since 1991 has become "one of the many casualties of the US-Israeli war with Iran".
According to Lynch, Washington spent more than three decades attempting to build a regional bloc centered on protecting "Israel" while containing Iran, Iraq, and later Tehran's regional allies. President Donald Trump's decision to go to war with Iran, he argued, was not a break with that strategy but its culmination.
Trump's administration sought to eliminate the Iranian challenge through overwhelming military force, but the campaign failed to remove the government in Tehran or prevent Iran from retaliating throughout the region.
"The American and Israeli failure to dislodge the regime in Tehran has proved the bankruptcy of decades of sanctions and violence," Lynch wrote.
Gulf security bargain shaken
At the center of Lynch's argument is the erosion of confidence among Washington's Gulf partners.
The US military presence in the region has long been justified by Washington's ability to deter attacks, defend allied governments, secure energy infrastructure, and ensure navigation through strategic waterways, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.
The war with Iran put those guarantees under unprecedented pressure.
Gulf governments opposed the war and were angered that Washington and "Israel" launched military operations while Oman was mediating negotiations with Tehran, Lynch noted. Those states then found themselves exposed to Iranian retaliation despite having little influence over the decision to begin the confrontation.
US missile defenses intercepted part of Iran's retaliation, but enough strikes penetrated defensive systems to cause significant damage and disrupt Gulf states' sense of security.
Iran also demonstrated that it could severely restrict maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening a key artery for global energy exports and the economies of Washington's Gulf allies.
Lynch argued that the experience raised a fundamental question for regional governments: whether hosting US military infrastructure continues to provide security or increasingly exposes them to wars initiated by Washington.
"What the Gulf took away from all this was that American security guarantees, the heart of the regional bargain, were no longer reliable," he wrote.
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