Energy market analysts said the maritime blockade imposed by the Yemeni Armed Forces on Saudi shipping exposes the limits of the kingdom’s ability to withstand disruptions as a major oil supplier, with data showing that Riyadh’s alternative arrangements cover only a fraction of the oil exports that were flowing through the Red Sea before the Yemeni blockade.

In a report published Wednesday, The New York Times examined the impact of the maritime blockade imposed by the Yemeni Armed Forces on Saudi Arabia, noting that this is the second time the kingdom has been forced to seek an alternative route for its oil exports since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The newspaper explained that “Saudi Arabia’s national security strategy rests on cementing its position as a cornerstone of global energy supplies,” adding that the kingdom’s repeated need to seek alternative export routes has exposed the extent to which it remains vulnerable to regional disruptions.

The newspaper quoted Neil Quilliam, a Gulf affairs expert at the British research institute Chatham House, as saying that the Yemeni blockade “highlights the limits of Saudi Arabia’s resilience.” 

He noted that the kingdom is trying to “do exactly what any reliable supplier would be expected to do” by seeking alternative export routes. 

However, “even the world’s most important oil supplier cannot entirely escape the consequences of having multiple maritime chokepoints threatened at the same time,” he said.

According to data and charts from maritime analytics firm Kpler cited in the report, Saudi oil flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have collapsed almost entirely following the blockade imposed by the Yemeni Armed Forces, after previously reaching nearly 4 million barrels per day.

The data showed that crude oil flows through the SUMED pipeline to the Mediterranean rose in August to 1.9 million barrels per day, up from 650,000 barrels per day in June, driven by Saudi shipments pumped northward as part of a new export mechanism aimed at circumventing the Yemeni blockade.

Yet the increase of 1.25 million barrels per day—most, though not all, of which represents Saudi flows—remains well below half of the kingdom’s oil exports that passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Asia before the blockade.

The newspaper noted that the complexities of the northern route for Saudi oil exports extend beyond restrictions on the Suez Canal and the pipeline’s capacity. 

Transporting oil along this route forces Asian buyers to sail around Africa on a lengthy voyage that can add delays of up to a full month, while increasing costs by at least $5 per barrel.

The newspaper quoted Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, as saying that the blockade “adds another layer of complexity to supply disruptions.”

“Asia will have to import crude oil from other sources or pay more,” he added.

The newspaper reported that Saudi Arabia is seeking to increase the capacity of the SUMED pipeline to 2 million barrels per day, a level that would still remain well below pre-blockade volumes.

According to data published in recent weeks, Saudi oil exports through the Red Sea had reached around 5 million barrels per day before the blockade, which Sana’a forces began enforcing on July 20.