U.S.-Egypt Relations and the Challenges of the Gaza Displacement Plan
Egypt and the United States share one of the oldest and most strategic alliances in the Arabic world. This relationship was significantly strengthened after the signing of “Camp David” Accords in 1978. Since then, the U.S. has been one of Egypt’s largest financial supporters, providing annual military and economic aid. However, these relations have experienced fluctuations depending on the policies of various U.S. administrations.
Recently, tensions between Washington and Cairo have escalated due to Egypt’s firm rejection of the proposed displacement of Palestinians from Gaza to Sinai. The U.S. has threatened to cut or reduce military and economic aid to Egypt, while American and Israeli media outlets have launched campaigns criticizing Cairo’s stance.
The settlement of refugees in Sinai could lead to armed resistance against Israel, posing a serious threat to Egypt’s security and altering its demographic landscape. Additionally, Egypt is grappling with a severe economic crisis and a massive debt burden, making it increasingly vulnerable to U.S. financial pressures. Despite these challenges, Cairo remains steadfast in its rejection of the plan, viewing it as a direct threat to Egypt’s national security.
Egypt may escalate its diplomatic efforts and bolster its military presence in Sinai to assert its security preparedness and reaffirm its categorical rejection of the resettlement plan. This strategy would be accompanied by intensified diplomatic outreach to secure international backing while potentially making limited concessions in areas such as security cooperation to alleviate economic pressures. Should the crisis deepen, Cairo could go as far as freezing certain provisions of its peace treaty with the Zionist entity as a pressure tactic—though this would remain a last-resort measure.
Despite growing external pressures, Egypt appears determined to stand firm against the displacement plan while carefully navigating its relationship with the United States.
U.S.-Egypt Relations
Egyptian-American relations have been a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and North Africa. Following the 1978 peace agreement, the United States became Egypt’s primary benefactor, offering approximately $1.3 billion in annual military assistance and $815 million in economic aid. Initially, this support was meant to counterbalance Egypt’s former reliance on Soviet assistance during the Cold War.
Despite this longstanding partnership, relations have seen significant fluctuations. Under President Obama, parts of U.S. military aid were suspended due to alleged human rights violations. In contrast, President Trump strongly supported Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, leading to a temporary improvement in ties. However, the current dispute over the proposed displacement of Palestinians has intensified tensions between Cairo and Washington. While other geopolitical issues, such as Egypt’s nuclear cooperation with Russia and its involvement in BRICS, have caused friction, they remain negotiable. The forced displacement issue, however, represents a major point of contention.
Growing U.S. Pressure on Egypt
Recently, the American pressure on Cairo has increased, due to Trump’s proposal to relocate Gaza residents to Egypt and Jordan. Washington has hinted at the possibility of reducing or suspending military and economic aid, particularly in light of Egypt’s strong opposition to the plan. American media outlets, including “USA Today” and “The Herald Tribune”, have questioned the continuation of U.S. assistance to Egypt due to its refusal of Trump’s plan, portraying President Sisi in negative terms and accusing his government of human rights violations.
While the potential suspension of military aid is frequently discussed in U.S. political circles, analysts believe it is unlikely to be fully implemented. American aid to Egypt serves as a tool of influence, ensuring privileges such as U.S. military overflight rights, expedited passage for U.S. naval vessels through the Suez Canal, and continued Egyptian purchases of American weapons.
Diplomatically, Washington has leveraged its global influence to pressure Egypt into accepting the displacement plan, arguing that Cairo’s opposition obstructs the broader “Deal of the Century” initiative aimed at resolving the Palestinian issue. Additionally, there have been implicit “Israeli” threats to breach the Egypt-Israel peace treaty by deploying military forces into Sinai if Egypt maintains its rejection of the proposal.
Egypt’s Challenges in Rejecting the Displacement Plan
Egypt’s commitment to the 1979 peace agreement with “Israel” was primarily driven by national interests, often at the expense of broader Arab solidarity. However, the current U.S.-backed displacement plan poses a direct threat to Egypt’s national security. The relocation of Palestinians to Sinai could lead to armed resistance against the Israeli entity from Egyptian territory, similar to past events in Jordan and Lebanon.
Furthermore, the plan aligns with broader efforts to dismantle the Palestinian cause and suppress Palestinian resistance, contradicting Egypt’s long-standing support for a two-state solution.
Economically, Egypt faces severe financial challenges, including a significant debt burden of $168 billion as of late 2024. The threat of losing U.S. aid exacerbates these difficulties, particularly given Egypt’s reliance on external financial support and the fluctuating value of its currency.
Egypt’s Firm Stance
Egypt is a historically established nation-state with deep-rooted national identity and territorial integrity, unlike Jordan and the Gulf Cooperation Council states, which emerged from post-World War political shifts. This gives Egypt a stronger position in resisting external pressures.
President Sisi has openly and unequivocally rejected the displacement plan, citing it as a direct threat to Egypt’s national security. The Egyptian leadership views their land as sacred and cannot be compromised, even in exchange for substantial economic incentives. Egyptians also recognize that forced displacements, historically presented as temporary solutions, often become permanent settlements, as seen in Lebanon and Syria.
Additionally, the prospect of armed Palestinian groups operating in Sinai raises security concerns reminiscent of Jordan’s 1970 “Black September” conflict and Lebanon’s civil war. Successful implementation of the displacement plan could also embolden Zionist territorial claims over parts of Sinai, using alleged Ancient Jewish ties to the region as justification.
Egypt’s firm rejection of the plan could influence other Arab states, particularly Jordan, to adopt a similarly resolute stance, thereby reducing the likelihood of the plan’s success and forcing Washington and “Tel Aviv” to reconsider their strategy.
Egypt’s Options in Facing U.S. Pressure
Despite its firm rejection of the displacement plan, Egypt remains cautious in managing its relations with the U.S. Cairo is employing a strategy of “strategic patience,” avoiding direct confrontation while relying on diplomatic maneuvers to navigate the crisis. Egypt hopes that shifts in U.S. leadership could lead to changes in American policy.
Egypt is also working to strengthen alliances with Arab nations, the European Union, and the Global South to counteract U.S. pressure. The widespread Arab and Palestinian opposition to the plan makes its implementation difficult without regional support. Additionally, Cairo could use its peace treaty with the Israeli entity as leverage, potentially suspending aspects of the agreement or reducing security cooperation if American and “Israeli” pressure intensifies.
In the long run, Egypt aims to diversify its international partnerships to reduce dependency on the U.S. This includes strengthening ties with China, Russia, and the European Union, as well as attracting foreign investments and expanding military cooperation with countries like France and Russia.
On the diplomatic front, Egypt could leverage international institutions such as the United Nations to expose the U.S.-Israeli displacement plan and rally global opposition against it.
Ultimately, while Egypt seeks to maintain its relationship with the United States, it remains steadfast in safeguarding its national security and strategic interests, rejecting any compromise that threatens its sovereignty.