The US Department of War will not disclose the price tag of its wars in the Western Hemisphere, but a new analysis by Brown University's Costs of War Project, provided exclusively to The Intercept, offers the first window into the ballooning costs. By the most cautious estimate, the US military's aggression on Venezuela and attacks on boats in the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific have already cost taxpayers at least $4.7 billion.

The Costs of War analysis is the most comprehensive accounting of US air, naval, and Special Operations expenses used in the two campaigns between August 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026. The need for such an estimate stems from the refusal of the Department of War to provide a tally of costs to lawmakers or The Intercept.

The researchers behind the estimate say it is almost assuredly an undercount. "Operations do not have a clear end date and are actively expanding. They carry significant human, financial, and strategic costs and risk," wrote authors Hanna Homestead and Jennifer Kavanagh.

Naval deployment largest single expense

The naval deployment, which comprised the largest concentration of US ships in the region since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, constituted the single largest expense at an estimated $3.8 billion. Costs of War puts the daily operating costs of these ships at around $9 million per day.

The steep naval expenditures are followed by at least $616 million spent on the deployment of aircraft, including P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, F-35A Lightning II fighters, and MQ-9 Reaper drones used in both operations. The continuing daily cost of operating at least 20 aircraft that remain deployed in the region is $2.6 million.

Under "Operation Southern Spear," the US military has conducted 53 attacks on alleged drug boats since September 2025, killing more than 180 civilians. The latest strike, on April 19 in the Caribbean, killed three people. The Trump administration claims its victims are members of cartels and criminal gangs but refuses to name them.

Experts say strikes are illegal extrajudicial killings

Experts in the laws of war and members of Congress from both parties say the strikes are illegal extrajudicial killings because the military is not permitted to deliberately target civilians, even suspected criminals, who do not pose an imminent threat of violence.

The summary executions are a significant departure from standard practice in the long-running US war on drugs, in which law enforcement agencies arrested suspected drug smugglers.

The Costs of War analysis puts the price tag of the munitions employed in these attacks on boats at between $12.5 million and $50 million, the range owing to the lack of transparency surrounding the strikes. The report notes that the individual cost of armaments used in each strike may top $1 million.

Venezuela aggression costs over $206 million

Beyond expenses captured under "Southern Spear", ancillary costs of "Operation Absolute Resolve," a large-scale air campaign and the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, top $206 million.

This includes the deployment of at least 150 aircraft along with precision munitions, such as Tomahawk cruise missiles and JASSM-ER missiles.

The approximately 200 Special Operations forces who played a key role in Maduro's kidnapping cost about $16 million, including the costs of daily operations and combat. As yet unknown are the costs of deployments of US commandos in Ecuador, another front in America's Western Hemisphere war.

Costs expected to rise significantly

The researchers wrote that the expenses were "enough to fund Medicaid for 500,000 people for an entire year." Kavanagh told The Intercept, "Though the Trump administration is right to focus more on the Western Hemisphere, most needs in the region are economic or require investment in regional law enforcement. The United States is not clearly safer or more prosperous as a result of these operations."

Homestead and Kavanagh note that the highest costs might still be on the horizon. "We expect that if comprehensive information were available, our cost estimate would likely increase significantly," they wrote.

Trump has said he expects the US to be running Venezuela for years. The Intercept previously reported that Department of War procurement documents indicate the US plans to maintain a massive military presence in the Caribbean until late 2028.

"Much of the military forward presence involved in these operations appears to now have become the 'steady state,' that is, it is likely to remain in the region for the foreseeable future," said Kavanagh. "This means that the costs will continue to accumulate."

Homestead told The Intercept, "Across the country people are going bankrupt and dying prematurely because of lack of health care, but the U.S. government has billions to spend on imperialist violence to enrich corporations — from Venezuela to Iran — without any regard for human rights, life or rule of law."

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