Yaffa Missile: Regional Implications Unfold
The recent Yemeni missile strike on Yaffa, “Tel Aviv|”, is undoubtedly bound to have significant regional repercussions. While unintended, the effects are already palpable. It is inconceivable that such a missile would pass over the Arabian Peninsula without inciting fear in the minds of regional leaders. After all, these nations have been embroiled in a war of aggression against Yemen for nearly a decade. Saudi Arabia, in particular, continues to resist efforts to find a peaceful resolution and obstructs the implementation of the agreed-upon roadmap, despite direct talks in both Riyadh and Sana’a, brokered by the United Nations and Oman.
More than two years later, the roadmap remains stuck at the first step—de-escalation—without advancing to the humanitarian measures. These include the resumption of oil exports, provision of essential services to the Yemeni people, and payment of wages, which have been suspended since the relocation of the central bank to Aden in 2016. This exacerbates the already dire humanitarian situation, with increasing poverty, unemployment, and deteriorating living conditions—issues that Sana’a can no longer ignore.
Yemen’s Direct Confrontation with Israel
Since the start of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7 of last year, Yemen officially declared its involvement in the battle in support of Gaza. The Yemeni Armed Forces prepared all necessary tools for engagement, beginning with operations in the Red Sea, including preventing Israeli ships from passing and conducting drone and missile attacks on the port of Umm al-Rashrash “Eilat”. These actions provided the U.S. with a pretext to disrupt any progress on the peace roadmap, applying pressure on Riyadh to stall the process. U.S. and British envoys openly linked Yemen’s support for Gaza to the peace process, intending to pressure Sana’a into halting its backing of Gaza.
In a principled stand rooted in humanitarian and religious values, Yemen persisted in its support for Gaza, escalating its military operations across multiple phases. By the fifth phase, Yemen struck at the heart of Israel’s political and economic center, Tel Aviv, occupied Yaffa with a drone that bypassed all defense systems and detonated near the U.S. Embassy. This clear message to Washington and Israel emphasized Yemen’s commitment to action as long as it can take any stand against the Israeli regime, especially in light of international silence regarding the atrocities committed against the people of Gaza.
Washington Entrapped in Yemen
Meanwhile, the U.S. attempted to form a military alliance under the name “Prosperity Coalition” to protect Israeli navigation in the Red Sea. Yet this move backfired, as U.S. and British ships were also blocked, forced to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. Far from securing Israeli navigation, American and British maritime routes have been severely disrupted.
Yemen’s military operations have expanded beyond the Red Sea, into the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, the Indian Ocean, and the Mediterranean. Yemeni forces have clashed with U.S. destroyers and aircraft carriers multiple times, forcing even the USS Eisenhower to flee Yemeni waters on more than four occasions. Its successor, the USS Roosevelt, dared not approach Yemen’s territory out of fear of meeting the same fate. Similarly, the USS Lincoln kept its distance from Yemen’s missile and drone range.
The Yemeni Armed Forces’ achievements have drawn a mixture of admiration and concern, especially in the West and among their Arab allies in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. The advances in technology, tactics, and strategy employed by Yemen have reached military and strategic research centers in both the East and the West.
Consequences of Failing to Deter Yemen
The latest ballistic missile strike on occupied Yaffa, as part of the escalation’s fifth phase that began with the Yaffa drone strike on July 19, has left a strong impact on both Western and regional political thinking. The missile, along with the drone, penetrated all layers of Israeli, U.S., British, and Arab defense systems, including advanced radars, satellites, and multi-layered defense networks Israel had long boasted about.
The failure of the U.S. to protect Israel’s strategic depth, despite a state of high alert across all sectors and massive military deployments in the region, casts a dark shadow over decision-making in the countries of the Saudi-led coalition. These nations are now reconsidering their positions, as their reliance on oil infrastructure and security is paramount. Yemeni forces had previously targeted critical oil sites in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, setting fire to Aramco facilities in Jeddah and causing widespread damage in Abu Dhabi’s Al-Misfah refinery during the “Yemen Storm” operation.
Yemen’s Transformative Role
The ballistic missile strike on Tel Aviv will undoubtedly influence Riyadh’s decision-making and provide Sana’a with opportunities to capitalize on these military achievements to alleviate the suffering of the Yemeni people by securing services and rights for them. Beyond accelerating the roadmap between Sana’a and Riyadh, Yemen’s military advancements, particularly in ballistic missiles and drones, represent a strategic shift in the balance of power in the region.
Yemen is no longer viewed as a marginal, war-torn country. Its military prowess has catapulted it into a position of significant influence in regional and international affairs, making it a critical player in shaping the future of the geopolitical landscape. Yemen now commands greater negotiating power with regional and international forces and is seen as a key focus of global attention, both politically and militarily. Major international powers are watching developments in Yemen with great interest, seeking to engage with it as a central player in the region’s structure.
For the Gulf states, Yemen’s growing military capabilities are seen as a direct threat, prompting them to rethink their security strategies. Yet Yemen has made it clear that its military forces do not pose a threat to any Arab nation, nor do they seek to harm the interests of Arab or Muslim peoples. Yemen’s focused attacks against the U.S., British, and Israeli coalition in support of Gaza have sent a clear message of peace and a call for Gulf capitals, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to resist continuous U.S. provocation and view Yemen as an ally, rather than a backyard battleground.